Portugal on the Verge of Elections over Alleged Corruption Case Involving Prime Minister

The Portuguese Prime Minister announced this Wednesday the vote of a motion of confidence in the Government. This occurred at the beginning of the debate on the motion of no confidence.

Portugal faces an uncertain political scenario with a motion of confidence and another of no confidence against Luís Montenegro's Government. This could lead to elections.

The origin of the crisis is Spinumviva, a company owned by Montenegro's wife and children. The company received payments from companies where the prime minister worked. Montenegro stated he hasn't committed any crime, but on Saturday he announced he will present a motion of confidence.

A simple majority is needed to approve it. If the motion of confidence is rejected, the center-right Executive will have to resign. However, Montenegro doesn't have the votes secured to win.

The Socialist Party (PS) and the Chega group have already announced their vote against it. This makes it difficult for Montenegro to achieve the necessary majority in Parliament.

The PS has 78 seats and Chega has 50, while the ruling coalition, composed of the PSD and the CDS-PP, totals 80 seats.

Political scientist André Azevedo indicated that the PS and Chega are sending a clear message: they don't trust the Government and won't support its continuity. The Government hasn't yet presented the motion of confidence. Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento suggested it might not be necessary.

The Assembly of the Republic has already rejected a motion of no confidence from Chega against the Government. This could weaken the opposition's strategy.

The PCP presented a new motion of no confidence on Sunday. It argues that the Government is a "factor of discredit" and that its policies are a problem. For Azevedo, this motion could be an exit for the Executive. If rejected, the Government can say it has been legitimized by Parliament.

The PS could also benefit, as it would avoid actively voting against the Government. Thus, it wouldn't take responsibility for forcing elections. It's unlikely that the motion of no confidence will be approved, but if Montenegro presents the motion of confidence, the result could be different.

If the motion of confidence fails, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa isn't obliged to call elections, but he could dissolve Parliament.

When António Costa resigned, Rebelo de Sousa chose to call elections, despite the PS's absolute majority. This could be repeated with Montenegro. Azevedo believes the country isn't ready for new elections. He recalls that there have been several elections in a short time and it would be difficult to form a government.

If Parliament is dissolved, it would be challenging for a new coalition to achieve an absolute majority. This would generate more uncertainty in Portugal.