Sumar's Weakness Puts Sánchez's Government in Check

Polls reflect a worrying scenario for Pedro Sánchez. Although PSOE maintains a loyal voter base, Sumar's weakness threatens to collapse the investiture bloc.

The far left, which in July 2023 contributed 30 key seats for governance, is crumbling. Only 40% of its voters would repeat their support, while the rest are migrating toward Podemos, PSOE or abstention.

Sumar's fall not only implies a loss of seats but also creates a domino effect. PSOE has managed to capture some of those voters, but not in sufficient numbers to compensate for the losses.

The result is a loss of parliamentary strength that makes a political cycle change increasingly likely.

The wear and tear of Sánchez's Government is reflected in the discontent of left-wing voters. Internal tensions, lack of cohesion in Sumar and controversies over taxes and the minimum wage have created a fracture difficult to mend.

A significant percentage of former Sumar voters have moved to abstention or indecision, weakening the bloc's ability to compete in future elections.

PSOE tries to stop this hemorrhage by intensifying its discourse. Sánchez has resorted to the strategy of presenting himself as the only brake against the "international far-right". However, this narrative isn't resonating enough with his electorate, which shows signs of fatigue.

PP and Vox Advance While PSOE Stagnates

On the other end of the political spectrum, the right consolidates its advantage. PP and Vox haven't experienced significant growth in votes, but the left's decline brings them closer to an absolute majority.

According to current projections, the sum of both parties could reach between 185 and 190 seats, a result that would make Sánchez's continuity impossible.

PP remains trapped in an ambiguous discourse without a clear alternative to the country model built by PSOE in recent decades.

However, the Government's inaction and the left's fracture have turned Feijóo's party into a viable option for a center-right electorate seeking stability.

Vox, meanwhile, has managed to capitalize on the frustration of voters discontented with PP. Its growth is especially notable among new voters, where it is already the party with the highest voting intention.

Additionally, it has managed to attract 650,000 former PP voters, consolidating its position as an essential partner in a future right-wing government.

Abstention: A Deadly Enemy for the Left

One of the most determining factors in the possible political cycle change is abstention. Data show that 20% of voters from each party are in a position of indecision.

This phenomenon especially affects the left, where demobilization is greater.

PSOE has tried to compensate for these losses by capturing voters from nationalist parties, a strategy that has worked in other general elections.

However, Bildu's rise in the Basque Country and the internal crisis in ERC complicate this vote transfer.

On the other hand, the increase in abstention among traditional PSOE voters could be lethal. If the trend continues, by February 2025 abstention will exceed 35%.

A Complicated Horizon for Sánchez

With more than two years to go before the general elections, the outlook isn't encouraging for PSOE. Sumar's inability to remain a relevant force and the demobilization of progressive voters pave the way for a right-wing victory.

If the trend continues, the current investiture bloc will be insufficient to keep Sánchez in power. PSOE could be forced to face a historic defeat with the right ready to take over.